Title:Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Diffusion Indexes in Short Samples with Structural Change
Author(s):BANERJEE, Anindya; MARCELLINO, Massimiliano; MASTEN, IgorDate:2008Type of Publication:Working PaperSeries/Report no.:EUI ECOAbstract:We conduct a detailed simulation study of the forecasting performance of
diffusion index-based methods in short samples with structural change. We
consider several data generation processes, to mimic different types ...
Title:Forecasting Nonlinear Aggregates and Aggregates with Time-varying Weights
Author(s):LUETKEPOHL, HelmutDate:2010Type of Publication:Working PaperSeries/Report no.:EUI ECOAbstract:Despite the fact that many aggregates are nonlinear functions and the aggregation weights of many macroeconomic aggregates are timevarying, much of the literature on forecasting aggregates considers the case of linear ...
Title:The Forecasting Performance of Real Time Estimates of the EURO Area Output Gap
Author(s):MARCELLINO, Massimiliano; MUSSO, AlbertoDate:2010Type of Publication:Working PaperSeries/Report no.:EUI ECOAbstract:This paper provides real time evidence on the usefulness of the euro area output gap as a leading indicator for inflation and growth. A genuine real-time data set for the euro area is used, including vintages of several ...
Title:Forecasting Volatility Using High-Frequency Data
Author(s):HANSEN, Peter Reinhard; LUNDE, AsgerDate:2011Type of Publication:Contribution to bookAbstract:This article focuses on some aspects of high-frequency data and their use in volatility forecasting. High-frequency data can be used to construct volatility forecasts. The article reviews two leading approaches to this. ...
Title:Forecasting with Factor-augmented Error Correction Models
Author(s):MASTEN, Igor; BANERJEE, Anindya; MARCELLINO, MassimilianoDate:2009Type of Publication:Working PaperSeries/Report no.:EUI RSCASAbstract:As a generalization of the factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) and of the Error Correction Model (ECM), Banerjee and Marcellino (2009) introduced the Factor-augmented Error Correction Model (FECM). The FECM combines error-correction, ...
Title:Forecasting with VARMA Models
Author(s):LUETKEPOHL, HelmutDate:2004Type of Publication:Working PaperSeries/Report no.:EUI ECO
Title:Foreign Armed Intervention in Internal Conflict
Author(s):TANCA, AntonioDate:1993Type of Publication:BookAbstract:The main aim of this book is to inquire into the system of norms regulating the `internationalization' of internal conflicts. The traditional distinction between international and internal conflict, which entails different ...
Title:Foreign Direct Investments and Spillovers Through Workers' Mobility
Author(s):MOTTA, Massimo; FOSFURI, Andrea; RONDE, ThomasDate:2001Type of Publication:ArticleAbstract:We analyze a model where a multinational firm can use a superior technology in a foreign subsidiary only after training a local worker. Technological spillovers from foreign direct investment arise when this worker is later ...
Title:Forerunners and Policy Tunnels
Author(s):KUNNAS, Jan; MYLLYNTAUS, TimoDate:2008Type of Publication:Contribution to bookAbstract:Based on a comparison of the carbon dioxide emissions of three EU member states and Switzerland for the period 1870 to 2003, we show that for cumulative pollutants focusing on yearly emissions is utterly misleading. ...