Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorMARCELLINO, Massimiliano 
dc.contributor.authorMUSSO, Alberto
dc.date.accessioned2010-02-19T17:15:05Z
dc.date.available2010-02-19T17:15:05Z
dc.date.issued2010
dc.identifier.issn1725-6704
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1814/13354
dc.description.abstractThis paper provides evidence on the reliability of euro area real-time output gap estimates, including those provided by the IMF, OECD and EC and a set of model based measures. A genuine real-time data set is used, including vintages of several sets of euro area output gap estimates available from 1999 to 2006. It turns out that real-time estimates of the output gap are characterised by a high degree of uncertainty, much higher than that resulting from model and estimation uncertainty only. In particular, the evidence indicates that both the magnitude and the sign of the real-time estimates of the euro area output gap are very uncertain. The uncertainty is mostly due to parameter instability, while data revisions seem to play a minor role. To benchmark our results, we repeat the analysis for the US over the same sample. It turns out that US real time estimates are much more correlated with final estimates than for the euro area, data revisions play a larger role, but overall the unreliability in real time of the US output gap measures detected in earlier studies is confirmed in the more recent perioden
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoenen
dc.relation.ispartofseriesEUI ECOen
dc.relation.ispartofseries2010/06en
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subjectOutput gapen
dc.subjectreal-time dataen
dc.subjecteuro areaen
dc.subjectdata revisionsen
dc.subjectE31en
dc.subjectE37en
dc.subjectE52en
dc.subjectE58en
dc.titleThe Reliability of Real Time Estimates of the EURO Area Output Gapen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.neeo.contributorMARCELLINO|Massimiliano|aut|EUI70008
dc.neeo.contributorMUSSO|Alberto|aut|
eui.subscribe.skiptrue


Files in this item

Icon

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record