Self-fulfilling Beliefs and Bounded Bubbles in the U.S. Housing Market

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dc.contributor.author KASHIWAGI, Masanori
dc.date.accessioned 2011-06-23T09:46:29Z
dc.date.available 2011-06-23T09:46:29Z
dc.date.issued 2011-01-01
dc.identifier.issn 1830-7728
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1814/17955
dc.description.abstract This paper provides an equilibrium framework to organize the following empirical observations on the U.S. housing market from 1975 to 2007: (i) housing tenure and vacancies were approximately constant, (ii) rents were approximately constant, and (iii) in the late 1990s there was a large house price appreciation. Borrowing ideas from search and matching theory, and closing the model with selffulfilling beliefs about the housing market, the model generates a house price bubble as a consequence of multiple underlying steady state equilibria. To select a deterministic equilibrium, household confidence is assumed to take one of two sunspot-driven values: normal or exuberant. When confidence is normal, both rents and house prices are low. When confidence is exuberant, both rents and house prices are high. Randomization over these two equilibria implies a substantial increase in house prices and constant rents as the probability of the exuberant state increases, although it is not realized. The model can explain a house price bubble as a rational expectations equilibrium driven by self-fulfilling beliefs. en
dc.language.iso en en
dc.relation.ispartofseries EUI MWP en
dc.relation.ispartofseries 2011/08 en
dc.subject Search en
dc.subject House prices en
dc.subject Sunspots en
dc.subject E30 en
dc.subject E32 en
dc.subject R32 en
dc.title Self-fulfilling Beliefs and Bounded Bubbles in the U.S. Housing Market en
dc.type Working Paper en
dc.neeo.contributor KASHIWAGI|Masanori|aut|


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