Title:MIDAS vs. Mixed-frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the Euro Area
Author(s):KUZIN, Vladimir; MARCELLINO, Massimiliano; SCHUMACHER, ChristianDate:2009Type of Publication:Working PaperSeries/Report no.:EUI ECOAbstract:This paper compares the mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and mixed-frequency VAR (MF-
VAR) approaches to model speci cation in the presence of mixed-frequency data, e.g.,
monthly and quarterly series. MIDAS leads to parsimonious ...
Title:Migration, Savings and Uncertainty
Author(s):DUSTMANN, ChristianDate:1992Type of Publication:Working PaperSeries/Report no.:EUI ECO
Title:The mixed blessing of IMF intervention: Signalling versus liquidity support
Author(s):ZWART, SanneDate:2007Type of Publication:ArticleAbstract:Although IMF support is supposed to benefit a country, it might be bad news that the IMF believes intervention is necessary. This paper analyzes a bank run model in which both the liquidity effect and the signalling effect ...
Title:A Mixture Multiplicative Error Model for Realized Volatility
Author(s):LANNE, MarkkuDate:2006Type of Publication:Working PaperSeries/Report no.:EUI ECOAbstract:A multiplicative error model with time-varying parameters and
an error term following a mixture of gamma distributions is intro-
duced. The model is fitted to the daily realized volatility series of
Deutschemark/Dollar ...
Title:A Model for Ordinal Responses with an Application to Policy Interest Rate
Author(s):SIRCHENKO, AndreiDate:2012Type of Publication:Working PaperSeries/Report no.:Economics Education and Research Consortium (EERC) Working PapersAbstract:The decisions to reduce, leave unchanged, or increase (the price, rating, policy interest rate, etc.) are often characterized by abundant no-change outcomes that are generated by different processes. Moreover, the positive ...
Title:Modeling and Forecasting Exchange-Rates With a Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model
Author(s):CANOVA, FabioDate:1993Type of Publication:ArticleAbstract:This paper employs a multivariate Bayesian time-varying coefficients (TVC) approach to model and forecast exchange rate data. It is shown that, if used as a data-generating mechanism, a TVC model induces nonlinearities in ...
Title:Modeling and Forecasting Stock Return Volatility Using a Random Level Shift Model
Author(s):LU, Yang K.; PERRON, PierreDate:2010Type of Publication:ArticleAbstract:We consider the estimation of a random level shift model for which the series of interest is the sum of a short-memory process and a jump or level shift component. For the latter component, we specify the commonly used ...
Title:Modeling Expectations with Noncausal Autoregressions
Author(s):LANNE, Markku; SAIKKONEN, PenttiDate:2008Type of Publication:Working PaperSeries/Report no.:EUI ECOAbstract:This paper is concerned with univariate noncausal autoregressive models and their
potential usefulness in economic applications. We argue that noncausal autoregres-
sive models are especially well suited for modeling ...
Title:Modelling of Cointegration in the Vector Autoregressive Model
Author(s):JOHANSEN, SorenDate:2000Type of Publication:ArticleAbstract:A survey is given of some results obtained for the cointegrated VAR. The Granger representation theorem is discussed and the notions of cointegration and common trends are defined. The statistical model for cointegrated ...
Title:Modelling Shifts in the Wage-Price and Unemployment-Inflation Relationships in Italy, Poland and the Uk
Author(s):MARCELLINO, Massimiliano; MIZON, Grayham E.Date:2000Type of Publication:ArticleAbstract:The relationship between wages, prices, productivity, inflation and unemployment in Italy, Poland, and the UK between the 1960s and the early 1990s is modelled as a cointegrated vector autoregression subject to regime ...