Browsing Department of Economics (ECO) by Subject "forecasting"

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Browsing Department of Economics (ECO) by Subject "forecasting"

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    Title: A Comparison of Mixed Frequency Approaches for Modelling Euro Area Macroeconomic Variables  Author(s): FORONI, Claudia; MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2012 Type of Publication: Working Paper Series/Report no.: EUI ECO Abstract: Forecast models that take into account unbalanced datasets have recently attracted substantial attention. In this paper, we focus on different methods pro- posed so far in the literature to deal with mixed-frequency and ...
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    Title: Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs  Author(s): CARRIERO, Andrea; CLARK, Todd E.; MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2012 Type of Publication: Working Paper Series/Report no.: EUI ECO Abstract: The estimation of large Vector Autoregressions with stochastic volatility using standard methods is computationally very demanding. In this paper we propose to model conditional volatilities as driven by a single common ...
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    Title: Forecasting Large Datasets with Bayesian Reduced Rank Multivariate Models  Author(s): CARRIERO, Andrea; KAPETANIOS, George; MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2009 Type of Publication: Working Paper Series/Report no.: EUI ECO Abstract: The paper addresses the issue of forecasting a large set of variables using multivariate models. In particular, we propose three alternative reduced rank forecasting models and compare their predictive performance for US ...
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    Title: Forecasting Euro-Area Variables with German Pre-EMU Data  Author(s): BRUEGGEMANN, Ralf; LUETKEPOHL, Helmut; MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2006 Type of Publication: Working Paper Series/Report no.: EUI ECO Abstract: It is investigated whether Euro-area variables can be forecast better based on synthetic time series for the pre-Euro period or by using just data from Germany for the pre-Euro period. Our forecast comparison is based ...
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    Title: A Markup Model for Forecasting Inflation for the Euro Area  Author(s): RUSSELL, Bill; BANERJEE, Anindya Date: 2006 Type of Publication: Article Abstract: We develop a small model for forecasting inflation for the euro area using quarterly data over the period June 1973 to March 1999. The model is used to provide inflation forecasts from June 1999 to March 2002. We compare ...