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Title:Illiquidity and Under-Valuation of Firms Author(s):GALE, Douglas; GOTTARDI, Piero
Date:2009Type:Working PaperSeries/Number:EUI ECO; 2009/38Abstract:We study a competitive model in which market incompleteness implies that debt-financed firms may default in some states of nature and default may lead to the sale of the firms’ assets at fire sale prices when markets are ...

Title:The Forecasting Performance of Real Time Estimates of the EURO Area Output Gap Author(s):MARCELLINO, Massimiliano
; MUSSO, AlbertoDate:2010Type:Working PaperSeries/Number:EUI ECO; 2010/15Abstract:This paper provides real time evidence on the usefulness of the euro area output gap as a leading indicator for inflation and growth. A genuine real-time data set for the euro area is used, including vintages of several ...

Title:Internal Hierarchy and Stable Coalition Structures Author(s):MORELLI, Massimo
; PARK, In-UckDate:2011Type:Working PaperSeries/Number:EUI ECO; 2011/20Abstract:When an agent decides whether to join a coalition or not, she must consider both i) the expected strength of the coalition and ii) her position in the vertical structure within the coalition. We establish that there exists ...

Title:I Prefer Not to Know! Analyzing the decision of getting information about your ability Author(s):GRANADOS ZAMBRANO, PaulinaDate:2012Type:Working PaperSeries/Number:EUI ECO; 2012/04Abstract:The recognition that information is, most of the time, incomplete and imperfect is essential in understanding the nature of the formation of beliefs. To understand human behavior in the area of (academic) performance, the ...
Title:Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Co-movement, long-run relationships and short-run dynamics Author(s):BEKIROS, Stelios D.
Date:2011Type:Working PaperSeries/Number:EUI ECO; 2011/21Abstract:The present study builds upon the seminal work of Engel and West [2005, Journal of Political Economy 113, 485-517] and in particular on the relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals. The paper discusses the ...

Title:Structural Vector Autoregressions with Markov Switching: Combining conventional with statistical identification of shocks Author(s):HERWARTZ, Helmut; LUETKEPOHL, HelmutDate:2011Type:Working PaperSeries/Number:EUI ECO; 2011/11Abstract:In structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis a Markov regime switching (MS) property can be exploited to identify shocks if the reduced form error covariance matrix varies across regimes. Unfortunately, these shocks ...
Title:Reaction to Technology Shocks in Markov-Switchings Structural VARs: Identification via heteroskedasticity Author(s):NETŠUNAJEV, AlekseiDate:2012Type:Working PaperSeries/Number:EUI ECO; 2012/13Abstract:The paper reconsiders the conflicting results in the debate connected to the effects of technology shocks on hours worked in the bivariate system. Given major dissatisfaction with the just-identifying long-run restrictions, ...
Title:Asymmetric Awareness and Moral Hazard Author(s):AUSTER, SarahDate:2011Type:Working PaperSeries/Number:EUI ECO; 2011/31Abstract:This paper introduces asymmetric awareness into the classical principal-agent model and discusses the optimal contract between a fully aware principal and an unaware agent. The principal enlarges the agent’s awareness ...
Title:Deposit Insurance without Commitment: Wall St. versus Main St. Author(s):COOPER, Russell; KEMPF, HubertDate:2011-01-01Type:Working PaperSeries/Number:EUI ECO; 2011/07Abstract:This paper studies the provision of deposit insurance without commitment in an economy with heterogenous households. When households are identical, deposit insurance will be provided ex post to reap insurance gains. But ...
Title:Forecasting Government Bond Yields with Large Bayesian VARs Author(s):CARRIERO, Andrea; KAPETANIOS, George; MARCELLINO, Massimiliano
Date:2010Type:Working PaperSeries/Number:EUI ECO; 2010/17Abstract:We propose a new approach to forecasting the term structure of interest rates, which allows to efficiently extract the information contained in a large panel of yields. In particular, we use a large Bayesian Vector ...
