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Title:Regime Switching Interest Rates and Fluctuations in Emerging Markets Author(s):GRUSS, Bertrand; MERTENS, KarelDate:2009Type:Working PaperSeries/Number:EUI ECO; 2009/22Abstract:We estimate regime switching models for emerging market interest rates and embed the obtained nonlinear dynamics in a small open economy model with a financial friction. We show that the presence of an infrequent regime ...

Title:S-Curve Redux: On the International Transmission of Technology Shocks Author(s):ENDERS, Zeno; MÜLLER, Gernot J.Date:2006Type:Working PaperSeries/Number:EUI ECO; 2006/36Abstract:Using vector autoregressions on U.S. time series, we find that technology shocks induce an ‘S’- shaped cross-correlation function for the trade balance and the terms of trade (S-curve). In calibrating a prototypical ...

Title:Monetary news, U.S. interest rate and business cycles in emerging economies Author(s):VICONDOA, Alejandro EUI affiliated

Date:2016Type:Working PaperSeries/Number:EUI ECO; 2016/10Abstract:This paper identifies anticipated (news) and unanticipated (surprise) shocks to the U.S. Fed Funds rate using CBOT Fed Funds Future Market and assesses their propagation to emerging economies. Anticipated movements account ...

Title:Twin Deficits, Openness and the Business Cycle Author(s):CORSETTI, Giancarlo; MÜLLER, Gernot J.Date:2007Type:Working PaperSeries/Number:EUI ECO; 2007/20Abstract:In this paper, we study the co-movement of the government budget balance and the trade balance at business cycle frequencies. In a sample of 10 OECD countries we find that the correlation of the two time series is negative, ...

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