Title:Forecasting Exchange Rates with a Large Bayesian VAR
Author(s):CARRIERO, Andrea; KAPETANIOS, George; MARCELLINO, MassimilianoDate:2009Type of Publication:ArticleAbstract:Models based on economic theory have serious problems forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate driftless random walk models, especially at short horizons. Multivariate time series models suffer from the ...
Title:Forecasting Large Datasets with Bayesian Reduced Rank Multivariate Models
Author(s):CARRIERO, Andrea; KAPETANIOS, George; MARCELLINO, MassimilianoDate:2011Type of Publication:ArticleAbstract:The paper addresses the issue of forecasting a large set of variables using multivariate models. In particular, we propose three alternative reduced rank forecasting models and compare their predictive performance for US ...
Title:Foreign Direct Investments and Spillovers Through Workers' Mobility
Author(s):MOTTA, Massimo; FOSFURI, Andrea; RONDE, ThomasDate:2001Type of Publication:ArticleAbstract:We analyze a model where a multinational firm can use a superior technology in a foreign subsidiary only after training a local worker. Technological spillovers from foreign direct investment arise when this worker is later ...
Title:Fragmented Fiscal Policy
Author(s):PEROTTI, Roberto; KONTOPOULOS, Y.Date:2002Type of Publication:ArticleAbstract:This paper explores on a panel of 19 OECD countries the role of fragmentation indetermining fiscal outcomes over the 1970-95 period. We first define the notion of fragmentation of fiscal policy-making as the degree to which ...
Title:Fuzzy Adaptive Decision-making for Boundedly Rational Traders in Speculative Stock Markets
Author(s):BEKIROS, Stelios D.Date:2010Type of Publication:ArticleAbstract:The development of new models that would enhance predictability for time series with dynamic time-varying, nonlinear features is a major challenge for speculators. Boundedly rational investors called “chartists” use advanced ...
Title:Gender Wage Gap in Expectations and Realizations
Author(s):ICHINO, Andrea; FILIPPIN, AntonioDate:2005Type of Publication:ArticleAbstract:Realized wages are affected by investments and signals concerning productivity, which workers undertake on the basis of expectations on future job prospects. Thus, the gender wage gap is also likely to depend on workers' ...
Title:General-to-Specific or Specific-to-General Modelling? An Opinion on Current Econometric Terminology
Author(s):LUETKEPOHL, HelmutDate:2007Type of Publication:ArticleAbstract:It is argued that what is the dominant approach to analyzing systems of cointegrated variables is not well described as general-to-specific (gets) modelling. The gets approach was developed during the last decades predominantly ...
Title:Getting European Universities into Shape
Author(s):JACOBS, Bas; VAN DER PLOEG, FrederickDate:2006Type of Publication:ArticleAbstract:Most European universities lag behind the best universities in the Anglo-Saxon world. A key challenge is to raise resources per student in Europe to US levels. The Lisbon agenda demands fundamental reform of the European ...
Title:Globalisation and the Spatial Concentration of Production
Author(s):NIEPMANN, Friederike; FELBERMAYR, Gabriel J.Date:2010Type of Publication:ArticleAbstract:(1240) Friederike Niepmann and Gabriel J. Felbermayr In new trade theory (NTT) models, freer trade tends to increase the spatial concentration of industrial production across countries. While nations with large home markets ...
Title:Growth and Employment Effects of Fiscal Regimes
Author(s):ROEGER, Werner; DE FIORE, FiorellaDate:1999Type of Publication:ArticleAbstract:This paper presents an endogenous growth model with firms exhibiting external or internal increasing returns. Firms are either perfectly or monopolistically competitive. The paper extends fiscal policy results, to cases ...
Title:Growth, Human-Capital Spillovers and International-Policy Coordination
Author(s):BLACKBURN, Keith; RAVN, Morten O.Date:1993Type of Publication:ArticleAbstract:The paper is concerned with public policy and economic development in a world of interdependent economies. Its objective is to show how the international coordination of economic policy is a means of promoting growth across ...