Second-Order Effects Plus Pan-European political Swings: an Analysis of European Parliament Elections Across Time
Title: Second-Order Effects Plus Pan-European political Swings: an Analysis of European Parliament Elections Across Time
Citation: Electoral Studies, 2011, 30, 1, 4-15, Special Symposium on Electoral Democracy in the European Union
Series/Report no.: [EUDO Public Opinion Observatory]
After seven waves of European Parliament elections and European Union enlargement to 27 states, the time is ripe to analyse the temporal robustness of the second-order model. We pool all the elections in a single evaluation and also look at election-by-election variations. We analyse changes in party performance over time in all EU states as well as in the ‘original 10’, to see whether any cross-time changes are driven by the changing composition of the EU. We also look for pan-European trends in each election, as a way identifying ‘European effects’ distinct from second-order effects. There are few consistent winners and losers, although socialist parties performed worse in the last three elections than their size and government status would predict.
Table of Contents:
1. Introduction: pan-European swings in European parliament elections? 2. Second-order effects: governing status and party size 3. Party family trends and individual election swings 4. Conclusion
Publication based on research carried out in the framework of the European Union Democracy Observatory (EUDO) of the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University Institute.; The journal issue has been produced in the framework of the PIREDEU Project, one of the projects carried out by the EUDO Public Opinion Observatory.
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