Browsing Working Papers by Author "CARRIERO, Andrea"

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Browsing Working Papers by Author "CARRIERO, Andrea"

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    Title: Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARs  Author(s): CARRIERO, Andrea; CLARK, Todd E.; MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2012 Type of Publication: Working Paper Series/Report no.: EUI ECO Abstract: The estimation of large Vector Autoregressions with stochastic volatility using standard methods is computationally very demanding. In this paper we propose to model conditional volatilities as driven by a single common ...
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    Title: Forecasting Government Bond Yields with Large Bayesian VARs  Author(s): CARRIERO, Andrea; KAPETANIOS, George; MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2010 Type of Publication: Working Paper Series/Report no.: EUI ECO Abstract: We propose a new approach to forecasting the term structure of interest rates, which allows to efficiently extract the information contained in a large panel of yields. In particular, we use a large Bayesian Vector ...
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    Title: Forecasting Large Datasets with Bayesian Reduced Rank Multivariate Models  Author(s): CARRIERO, Andrea; KAPETANIOS, George; MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2009 Type of Publication: Working Paper Series/Report no.: EUI ECO Abstract: The paper addresses the issue of forecasting a large set of variables using multivariate models. In particular, we propose three alternative reduced rank forecasting models and compare their predictive performance for US ...
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    Title: Forecasting Exchange Rates with a Large Bayesian VAR  Author(s): CARRIERO, Andrea; KAPETANIOS, George; MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2008 Type of Publication: Working Paper Series/Report no.: EUI ECO Abstract: Models based on economic theory have serious problems at forecasting exchange rates better than simple univariate driftless random walk models, especially at short horizons. Multivariate time series models suffer from the ...