dc.contributor.author | BRUNINX, Kenneth | |
dc.contributor.author | DELARUE, Erik | |
dc.contributor.author | D’HAESELEER, William | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2013-07-04T15:18:10Z | |
dc.date.available | 2013-07-04T15:18:10Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2013 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1028-3625 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/1814/27520 | |
dc.description.abstract | As the share of wind power in the electricity system rises, the limited predictability of wind power generation becomes increasingly critical for operating a reliable electricity system. In most operational & economic models, the wind power forecast error (WPFE) is often assumed to have a Gaussian or so-called B-distribution. However, these distributions are not suited to fully describe the skewed and heavy-tailed character of WPFE data. In this paper, the Lévy a-stable distribution is proposed as an improved description of the WPFE. Based on 6 years of historical wind power data, three forecast scenarios with forecast horizons ranging from 1 to 24 hours are simulated via a persistence approach. The Lévy a-stable distribution models the WPFE better than the Gaussian or so-called B-distribution, especially for short term forecasts. In a case study, an analysis of historical WPFE data showed improvements over the Gaussian and B-distribution between 137 and 567% in terms of cumulative squared residuals. The method presented allows to quantify the probability of a certain error, given a certain wind power forecast. This new statistical description of the WPFE can hold important information for short term economic & operational (reliability) studies in the field of wind power. | en |
dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | |
dc.language.iso | en | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | EUI RSCAS | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | 2013/50 | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | Loyola de Palacio Programme on Energy Policy | en |
dc.rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | en |
dc.rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | |
dc.subject | Error analysis | en |
dc.subject | Lévy a-stable distribution | en |
dc.subject | Statistical analysis | en |
dc.subject | Stable process | en |
dc.subject | Wind power forecasting | en |
dc.subject | Wind power generation | en |
dc.title | Statistical description of the error on wind power forecasts via a Lévy a-stable distribution | en |
dc.type | Working Paper | en |
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