Global economy report : September-October 2015
LIMONTA, Daniele; MARCELLINO, Massimiliano; STANZINI, Alessandro; TRAVERSO, Maria Eleonora; MARTINO, Alberta
Title: Global economy report : September-October 2015
Editor(s): LIMONTA, Daniele; MARCELLINO, Massimiliano; STANZINI, Alessandro; TRAVERSO, Maria Eleonora; MARTINO, Alberta
Series/Number: Global Governance Programme
The objective of the Report is to provide an analysis of the current and expected macroeconomic and financial conditions at the global level, with also a focus on key economic areas such as Europe, the USA and ASIA. In Q2 2015, Eurozone’s aggregate income grew by 0.3% compared to the previous period, one tenth below expected, growing however for the ninth consecutive quarter. The figure is slightly lower than in the previous period (+0.4%). On an annualised basis, income has accelerated at +1.2% (from +1.0%), the highest annual rate since Q3 2011. The ongoing improving trend in the job market continued during the summer months. The leading indicator on employment conditions is still in expansive territory, close to four-year highs. August preliminary estimates point to a stable inflation rate at 0.2%, as in the previous month, in positive territory for the fourth consecutive month and in line with forecasts. Also core inflation is stable at 1%, higher than consensus forecasts (+0.9%). Our forecasts are for a further moderate growth in the euro area, with inflation below the ECB target. For growth, we forecast 1.3% in 2015 and 1.7% in 2016, for inflation around zero in 2015 and 0.9% in 2016. Instead, for the USA we expect growth at 2.7% in 2015, 3.0% in 2016; inflation at 0.1% in 2015, 1.1% in 2016. In Japan, after Q2’s growth decrease, the expectations for the Government’s and BoJ’s intervention are increasing. The productive system suffers a stagnation of internal and external demand, due to China’s slowdown, Japan’s second commercial partner, coupled with domestic consumption weakness. In China, fears persist of a marked slowdown in economic activity, which would have negative effects on a global level, and in particular on emerging markets. On the other hand, there remains substantial space for expansionary fiscal and monetary policy. In this report we present a special focus on economic conditions in China and Japan.
Report closed on 4 September 2015.; The Global Economy Report is prepared in cooperation by the Macroeconomic Research Division of Banca Aletti and the Global Governance Programme of the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies of the European University Institute.
Type of Access: openAccess
Files in this item
- Full-text in Open Access