When the dust settles : reflecting on the politics of reconstruction and reconciliation in the MENA region

Abstract

Definitive solutions for war-torn Syria, Iraq and Libya are still on a distant horizon, but the scale and intensity of violence seem to be ebbing in 2018. With the forceful reclamation of Mosul, Aleppo and Raqqa, as well as the repossession of Sirte and the end of fighting in Benghazi, the greatest battles appear to be over. The civil war in Syria is increasingly localised into pockets of conflict in the South and the North, which are not likely to change the overall course of events. Iraqi central government and the Syrian regime have gained the upper hand in the last two years thanks to undeniable economic and military support from regional and international allies. ISIS, as a territorialised terrorist organisation, has almost been completely wiped out in all three war-torn countries, even though its activities are bound to persist. The military situation in Libya has been relatively stagnant since late 2015, with the exception of localised conflicts.