Deir al-Zor after Islamic state : between Kurdish self-administration and a return of the Syrian regime

Abstract

بينما تشهد محافظة دير الزور حالة اضطراب هائل، تطرح الهزيمة العسكرية لداعش احتمالات عدة لمسألة استقرار هذه المنطقة وإعادة بناء السلام فيها في المدى المتوسط والبعيد. لذلك يحاول هذا البحث تحليل جانب من الآثار العميقة التي خلفتها الحرب في بنية مجتمع دير الزور وتحديد الاستجابات المحتملة للمجتمعات المحلية إزاء سلطتي الإدارة الذاتية والنظام وتحديد آليات الحكم لدى كل منهما. ويبين هذا البحث التحديات الهائلة التي تواجه منطقة دير الزور بعد داعش، من ظاهرة التفكك الاجتماعي نتيجة للصراع وموجات النزوح إلى عوامل توتر عدة قد تولد نزاعات كبيرة في المدى المتوسط.

This paper seeks to unpack the local dynamics of the conflict in Deir al-Zor, that are critical to the stability of the region as a whole. Deir al-Zor was the main entry point for Islamic State of Iraq into Syria, because of the governorate’s strategic location. IS managed to establish control over large swathes of territory. Subsequently, though, the group gradually lost sway over much of this territory, leaving Deir al-Zor as its last bastion of influence in Syria. The region of Deir al-Zor only lately came to prominence on a national and international level in light of the fight against IS. By the beginning of 2018, two separate military campaigns had divided Deir al-Zor geographically, militarily and politically. One of the two areas is governed by the Kurdish Self Administration, while the other is under the control of the Syrian regime. The territory in Deir al-Zor controlled by IS, meanwhile, now comprises just two small areas. Between 2012 and 2017, displacement and migration exacerbated the divisions among local communities. Weakness and competition within the tribal structure - the main social unit of local society - left the population extremely vulnerable to exploitation by jihadi Salafism, although IS was ultimately unable to rally lasting support from the tribes. The Syrian Democratic Forces – whose core is composed of armed Kurdish units loyal to the Democratic Union Party (PYD) – have been able to impose their military control over part of Deir Al-Zor province. Under the governance model followed by the Self Administration in Deir al-Zor, there are significant tensions between, on the one hand, the governance model’s ethnic Kurdish identity and commitment to the ideology espoused by PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan, and on the other, the local community’s conservative Arab Sunni identity. These tensions could lead to serious conflict in the medium-term.