Browsing RSCAS Research Project Reports by Title

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Browsing RSCAS Research Project Reports by Title

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    Title: Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2007 and 2008  Author(s): MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2007 Type of Publication: Technical Report Series/Report no.: EFN Report Abstract: • In early summer, the world economy continues to expand at a swift pace. Due to sluggish expansion of US demand and less benign monetary conditions, however, world production will temporarily lose momentum. But healthy ...
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    Title: Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2007 and 2008  Author(s): MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2006 Type of Publication: Technical Report Series/Report no.: EFN Report Abstract: • In the second half of 2006 the expansion of world output has slowed down, mainly due to the end of the upswing in the US. World trade, however, continued its brisk pace, driven by the high growth dynamics of most emerging ...
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    Title: Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2007 and 2008  Author(s): MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2007 Type of Publication: Technical Report Series/Report no.: EFN Report Abstract: • Our forecast for GDP growth in the euro area is 2.5% for 2007 and 2.1% for 2008. World financial markets will not be as supportive for growth in the rest of 2007 as they were last year. Asset prices will probably rise ...
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    Title: Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2008 and 2009  Author(s): MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2008 Type of Publication: Technical Report Series/Report no.: EFN Report Abstract: · The short term outlook for activity in the euro area is clouded, as industrial production has been falling during summer, and confidence is still on a declining trend. Production will be little more than stagnating for ...
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    Title: Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2008 and 2009  Author(s): MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2008 Type of Publication: Technical Report Series/Report no.: EFN Report Abstract: · The world economy is bound to slow further this year, but severe recessions are not in sight. The most serious risks might stem from the political economy of emerging market countries: macroeconomic turbulences are certain ...
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    Title: Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2008 and 2009  Author(s): MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2007 Type of Publication: Technical Report Series/Report no.: EFN Report Abstract: • Recent data point to much more muted growth dynamics in 2008 than in the past year. One cause is the prolonged oil price hike during 2007. The second and more important cause is the intensification of tensions on world ...
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    Title: Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2008 and 2009  Author(s): MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2008 Type of Publication: Technical Report Series/Report no.: EFN Report Abstract: · The euro area economy is threatened by the present financial crisis and the downswing in the US, more than many emerging markets economies, due to the high degree of integration between European and US financial markets. ...
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    Title: Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2009 and 2010  Author(s): MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2009 Type of Publication: Technical Report Series/Report no.: EFN Report Abstract: · The world wide recovery will put an end to the recession in the euro area in the second half of 2009, but chances for a robust upswing for the year 2010 are slim. We expect GDP to fall around 4.0% in 2009, but a positive ...
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    Title: Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2009 and 2010  Author(s): MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2009 Type of Publication: Technical Report Series/Report no.: EFN Report Abstract: · The euro area is experiencing an unprecedented drop in economic activity in the first semester of 2009. Private consumption is expected to decrease by more than 1% compared with the same period a year earlier, investment ...
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    Title: Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2009 and 2010  Author(s): MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2008 Type of Publication: Technical Report Series/Report no.: EFN Report Abstract: - Economic policy will not be able to stop recessions in the developed economies during the first half of 2009; positive announcement effects will be limited because economic agents feel that a recovery is conditioned on ...
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    Title: Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2009 and 2010  Author(s): MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2009 Type of Publication: Technical Report Series/Report no.: EFN Report Abstract: · For much of 2009, falling external demand will be the main drag on production in the euro area, with exports expected to decrease by about 13% in 2009. At the same time, the structural problems of the financial sector, ...
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    Title: Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2010 and 2011  Author(s): MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2010 Type of Publication: Technical Report Series/Report no.: EFN Report Abstract: • The euro area economy benefits from dynamic growth of exports to the emerging markets. Exports to Asia in particular have exceeded their peak level of spring 2008 as early as at the beginning of this year. Firms reacted ...
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    Title: Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2010 and 2011  Author(s): MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2010 Type of Publication: Technical Report Series/Report no.: EFN Report Abstract: · The world economy is recovering, largely driven by upswings in most emerging market economies. Although growth in these regions is apparently calming down at present, the euro area will still be benefiting from the ...
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    Title: Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2010 and 2011  Author(s): MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2009 Type of Publication: Technical Report Series/Report no.: EFN Report Abstract: · In 2010, the recovery of the world economy will be driven by a strong expansion of production in many emerging markets. Rising exports will be the main driver of the recovery in the euro area. We expect GDP to grow around ...
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    Title: Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2010 and 2011  Author(s): MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2010 Type of Publication: Technical Report Series/Report no.: EFN Report Abstract: · The world economy will recover during 2010 and 2011 thanks to ultra-low key interest rates in industrial countries and to the strong growth in emerging markets economies. In the euro area, however, the phasing out of ...
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    Title: Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2011 and 2012  Author(s): MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2011 Type of Publication: Technical Report Series/Report no.: EFN Report Abstract: · High growth dynamics and demand coming from emerging markets will slow only modestly in the rest of 2011 and in 2012, but the intensification of the financial turmoil and the doubts about the ability of the European Union ...
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    Title: Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2011 and 2012  Author(s): MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2011 Type of Publication: Technical Report Series/Report no.: EFN Report Abstract: • The worldwide upswing has lost momentum, but it will overcome the present slowdown. Monetary policy is overall still accommodative, and growth dynamics continue to be high in emerging market countries. • For the euro ...
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    Title: Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2011 and 2012  Author(s): MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2010 Type of Publication: Technical Report Series/Report no.: EFN Report Abstract: • In most advanced economies, strained public finances compel central banks to keep their expansive course, while interest rates in most emerging markets continue to be relatively low, if compared to their high potential ...
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    Title: Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2011 and 2012  Author(s): MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2011 Type of Publication: Technical Report Series/Report no.: EFN Report Abstract: • Our baseline scenario for the world economy in 2011 and 2012 is a continuation of the upswing, because growth dynamics continue to be high in emerging economies, monetary policy will in general continue to be expansive, ...
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    Title: Economic outlook for the Euro area in 2012 and 2013  Author(s): MARCELLINO, Massimiliano Date: 2012 Type of Publication: Technical Report Series/Report no.: EFN Report Abstract: - In the Autumn of 2012, economic growth in the world is rather anemic, and it will probably stay very moderate in the rest of this year and in 2013. Production in most emerging markets countries will pick up during winter, ...