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dc.contributor.authorBARTHA, Eszter
dc.contributor.authorWOLSZCZAK-DERLACZ, Joanna
dc.date.accessioned2008-07-14T16:57:08Z
dc.date.available2008-07-14T16:57:08Z
dc.date.issued2008
dc.identifier.issn1830-7728
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1814/9012
dc.description.abstractThis paper investigates opinion contagion in collective behaviour, using an extension of Granovetter’s (1978) and Krassa’s (1988) threshold models. The theoretical background is the spiral of silence concept developed by Noelle-Neumann (1974), arguing that people only assert their opinions if they perceive a minimal support from a relevant proportion of others. We apply the model to explain the wrong electoral forecasts of the Polish parliamentary and presidential elections in 2005. It is shown that the minority opinions were more widely-held than was declared in opinion polls as a consequence of different distributions of the threshold values of opinion assertion.en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherEuropean University Institute
dc.relation.ispartofseriesEUI MWPen
dc.relation.ispartofseries2008/26en
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subjectSpiral of silenceen
dc.subjectthreshold modelen
dc.subjectelectoral forecastsen
dc.subjectopinion assertionen
dc.titleWhy do People Choose to be Silent? Simulating Electoral Behaviouren
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.neeo.contributorBARTHA|Eszter|aut|
dc.neeo.contributorWOLSZCZAK-DERLACZ|Joanna|aut|
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