Why do People Choose to be Silent? Simulating Electoral Behaviour

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dc.contributor.author BARTHA, Eszter
dc.contributor.author WOLSZCZAK-DERLACZ, Joanna
dc.date.accessioned 2008-07-14T16:57:08Z
dc.date.available 2008-07-14T16:57:08Z
dc.date.issued 2008
dc.identifier.issn 1830-7728
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1814/9012
dc.description.abstract This paper investigates opinion contagion in collective behaviour, using an extension of Granovetter’s (1978) and Krassa’s (1988) threshold models. The theoretical background is the spiral of silence concept developed by Noelle-Neumann (1974), arguing that people only assert their opinions if they perceive a minimal support from a relevant proportion of others. We apply the model to explain the wrong electoral forecasts of the Polish parliamentary and presidential elections in 2005. It is shown that the minority opinions were more widely-held than was declared in opinion polls as a consequence of different distributions of the threshold values of opinion assertion. en
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher European University Institute
dc.relation.ispartofseries EUI MWP en
dc.relation.ispartofseries 2008/26 en
dc.rights info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subject Spiral of silence en
dc.subject threshold model en
dc.subject electoral forecasts en
dc.subject opinion assertion en
dc.title Why do People Choose to be Silent? Simulating Electoral Behaviour en
dc.type Working Paper en
dc.neeo.contributor BARTHA|Eszter|aut|
dc.neeo.contributor WOLSZCZAK-DERLACZ|Joanna|aut|
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