Why do People Choose to be Silent? Simulating Electoral Behaviour

dc.contributor.author	BARTHA, Eszter
dc.contributor.author	WOLSZCZAK-DERLACZ, Joanna
dc.date.accessioned	2008-07-14T16:57:08Z
dc.date.available	2008-07-14T16:57:08Z
dc.date.issued	2008
dc.identifier.issn	1830-7728
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/1814/9012
dc.description.abstract	This paper investigates opinion contagion in collective behaviour, using an extension of Granovetter’s (1978) and Krassa’s (1988) threshold models. The theoretical background is the spiral of silence concept developed by Noelle-Neumann (1974), arguing that people only assert their opinions if they perceive a minimal support from a relevant proportion of others. We apply the model to explain the wrong electoral forecasts of the Polish parliamentary and presidential elections in 2005. It is shown that the minority opinions were more widely-held than was declared in opinion polls as a consequence of different distributions of the threshold values of opinion assertion.	en
dc.language.iso	en	en
dc.publisher	European University Institute
dc.relation.ispartofseries	EUI MWP	en
dc.relation.ispartofseries	2008/26	en
dc.subject	Spiral of silence	en
dc.subject	threshold model	en
dc.subject	electoral forecasts	en
dc.subject	opinion assertion	en
dc.title	Why do People Choose to be Silent? Simulating Electoral Behaviour	en
dc.type	Working Paper	en
dc.neeo.contributor	BARTHA\|Eszter\|aut\|
dc.neeo.contributor	WOLSZCZAK-DERLACZ\|Joanna\|aut\|
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