Browsing by Author "STINEBRICKNER, Ralph"

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Title:The ex post accuracy of subjective beliefs : a new measure and decomposition Author(s):CROSSLEY, Thomas F. ; GONG, Yifan; STINEBRICKNER, Ralph; STINEBRICKNER, ToddDate:2022Citation:Economics letters, 2022, Vol. 210, Art. 110160, OnlineOnlyType:ArticleAbstract:We propose a novel but intuitive measure of the average ex post accuracy of a group of economic agents’ beliefs, and show how a decomposition of that measure captures different sources of inaccuracy: failure of rational ...
Title:Examining income expectations in the college and early post-college periods : new distributional tests of rational expectations Author(s):CROSSLEY, Thomas F. ; GONG, Yifan; STINEBRICKNER, Todd; STINEBRICKNER, RalphDate:2021Type:Working PaperSeries/Number:NBER Working Paper; 2021/28353Abstract:Unique longitudinal probabilistic expectations data from the Berea Panel Study, which cover both the college and early post-college periods, are used to examine young adults’ beliefs about their future incomes. We introduce ...