Subverting autocracy : emancipative mass values in competitive authoritarian regimes
License
Access Rights
Cadmus Permanent Link
Full-text via DOI
ISBN
ISSN
1351-0347
Issue Date
Type of Publication
Keyword(s)
LC Subject Heading
Other Topic(s)
EUI Research Cluster(s)
Initial version
Published version
Succeeding version
Preceding version
Published version part
Earlier different version
Initial format
Author(s)
Citation
Democratization, 2015, Vol. 22, No. 6, pp. 1105-1130
Cite
ZAVADSKAYA, Margarita, WELZEL, Christian, Subverting autocracy : emancipative mass values in competitive authoritarian regimes, Democratization, 2015, Vol. 22, No. 6, pp. 1105-1130 - https://hdl.handle.net/1814/48049
Abstract
Competitive elections in authoritarian regimes are inherently ambiguous: do they extend regime persistence or, vice versa, operate as subversive events? This article tests Inglehart and Welzel's 'emancipatory theory of democracy', which has not been tested for competitive elections in autocracies: when emancipative values grow strong, autocratic power appears increasingly illegitimate in people's eyes, which motivates subversive mass actions against authoritarian rule. For electoral outcomes this suggestion implies, first, that authoritarian incumbents are more likely to suffer electoral defeat when emancipative values have become more widespread. Second, post-electoral protest against fraudulent elections is more likely when emancipative values have become more widespread. To test these hypotheses, we analyse 152 elections among 33 electoral authoritarian regimes over 21 years from 1990–2011. We find that emancipative values are indeed strongly conducive to incumbent defeat while their effect on post-electoral protest is conditional: it only occurs in elections won by the incumbent. These findings intertwine two separately developed literatures: one on authoritarian regime subversion and the other on emancipatory cultural change.
Table of Contents
Additional Information
First published online: 20 June 2014