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Breaking the silence : explaining the dynamics behind Poland's desire to join NATO nuclear sharing in light of Russian aggression against Ukraine
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1073-6700; 1746-1766
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The nonproliferation review, 2023, Vol. 30, No. 4-6, pp. 241-263
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SUS, Monika, KULESA, Lukasz, Breaking the silence : explaining the dynamics behind Poland’s desire to join NATO nuclear sharing in light of Russian aggression against Ukraine, The nonproliferation review, 2023, Vol. 30, No. 4-6, pp. 241-263 - https://hdl.handle.net/1814/77895
Abstract
Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Polish policy leaders publicly called for their country to be included in NATO’s nuclear-sharing program. This article explores why Warsaw decided to break with its long-standing tradition of not raising the issue because of the controversy that the potential deployment of nuclear weapons in Poland would cause among allies and the risk of increased tensions with Russia. Drawing on John Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Approach, we demonstrate that a simultaneous occurrence of external and internal factors has driven the shift in Poland’s policy. Among the former, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus have been decisive. As for the internal conditions, a shift in public and elite attitudes toward greater support for Poland joining NATO’s nuclear-sharing program has proven to be crucial. The article also considers the reasons why the United States has remained reluctant to support the Polish proposal, linking the Polish case to the broader debate on NATO’s nuclear-deterrence posture.
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Published online: 24 December 2024