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Return or regularization? : a temporal analysis of rejected asylum seekers in Germany
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1028-3625
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EUI; RSC; Working Paper; 2025/06; Migration Policy Centre
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PEITZ, Laura Francesca, Return or regularization? : a temporal analysis of rejected asylum seekers in Germany, EUI, RSC, Working Paper, 2025/06, Migration Policy Centre - https://hdl.handle.net/1814/78047
Abstract
This study examines the temporal dynamics and policy influences on pathways out of irregularity for rejected asylum seekers in Germany through the lens of temporal liminality, a concept highlighting the indefinite waiting and uncertainty faced by migrants in transitional legal states. Using longitudinal administrative data spanning 2013 to 2022, the study employs event history analysis within a competing risks framework to analyse three primary pathways: voluntary departure, deportation, and regularization. The findings reveal that voluntary departures are most common within the first two years of irregularity, while regularization becomes increasingly likely over longer durations, reflecting the role of time in shaping opportunities for status stabilization. Deportations remain uncommon, underscoring the legal, logistical, and humanitarian challenges in enforcing removal orders. The research also evaluates the effects of safe-country classifications and variations in toleration statuses (Duldung). The safe-country policy is shown to have limited direct impact on pathways out of irregularity. In contrast, the type of Duldung significantly affects outcomes: employment- and training-based Duldung foster regularization, while the more restrictive ‚Duldung light‘ prolongs irregularity. By incorporating the concept of temporal liminality, this study contributes a nuanced understanding of how time interacts with policy frameworks and individual circumstances to shape migration trajectories. The findings call for migration policies that balance enforcement with support, emphasizing the importance of timely and structured pathways to regularization to address the socio-economic and legal challenges of prolonged liminality.