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Youth political representation in Latvia and Estonia : from electoral entry to parliamentary action
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Florence : European University Institute, 2025
EUI; SPS; PhD Thesis
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HOFMANE (BRIEDE), Ieva, Youth political representation in Latvia and Estonia : from electoral entry to parliamentary action, Florence : European University Institute, 2025, EUI, SPS, PhD Thesis - https://hdl.handle.net/1814/93648
Abstract
This dissertation investigates why young people remain underrepresented in parliaments and what happens once they are elected. Within the broader study of political representation, it examines three dimensions of youth representation: electoral prospects, career trajectories, and contributions to parlia mentary discourse. The analysis focuses on Latvia and Estonia - two underresearched post-transition democracies. The first article explores nomination practices in Latvia, asking how candidates’ preference vote earning capacity influences renomination and list placement in an OLPR system, and how age moderates these effects. Drawing on original data from three parliamentary elections (2014-–2022), the findings show that parties often relegate young candidates to ornamental positions, creating a “double whammy” of poor list placement and fewer preference votes. Yet OLPR also provides opportunities: for younger candidates, strong personal vote performance matters more than for their older peers, sending unexpected signals to party elites and improving advancement prospects. The second article shifts to post-entry careers. Examining 175 MPs aged 40 and under who en tered Latvia’s parliament between 1993 and 2014, sequence and clustering analyses reveal four typical trajectories: Parliament Anchors, Career Climbers, Local Shifters, and Political Exiters. Multinomial regression results show that ascriptive characteristics, party affiliation, and temporal context shape career outcomes. Broader trends - such as early system fluidity, subsequent stabilization, and recent volatility - also influence the sustainability of parliamentary careers. The third article turns to substantive representation in Estonia. Using floor speeches from 2011-–2023 classified into 56 policy topics with the manifestoberta XLM-RoBERTa model, it examines whether young MPs diversify debates. Results reveal modest but meaningful differences: younger MPs focus more on democracy and supply-side economic policies, and greater youth presence is associated with a more balanced topic coverage. Taken together, the dissertation shows that youth are not merely marginalized “list fillers.” They can leverage institutional openings, pursue varied careers, and broaden legislative debate. While young MPs alone do not reshape democratic institutions, the evidence suggests that newer, post-transition democracies may be more open to youth inclusion compared to established democracies that have received more scholarly attention.
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Defence date: 08 September 2025
Examining Board: Prof. Simon Hix (European University Institute, Supervisor); Prof. Aksel Sundström (University of Gothenburg, External Supervisor); Prof. Filip Kostelka (European University Institute); Prof. Jānis Ikstens (University of Latvia)
Examining Board: Prof. Simon Hix (European University Institute, Supervisor); Prof. Aksel Sundström (University of Gothenburg, External Supervisor); Prof. Filip Kostelka (European University Institute); Prof. Jānis Ikstens (University of Latvia)