Dating the Business Cycle in Britain
License
Access Rights
Cadmus Permanent Link
Full-text via DOI
ISBN
ISSN
Issue Date
Type of Publication
Keyword(s)
LC Subject Heading
Other Topic(s)
EUI Research Cluster(s)
Initial version
Published version
Succeeding version
Preceding version
Published version part
Earlier different version
Initial format
Author(s)
Citation
National Institute Economic Review, 2005, 182, 1, 90-95
Cite
ARTIS, Michael J., Dating the Business Cycle in Britain, National Institute Economic Review, 2005, 182, 1, 90-95 - https://hdl.handle.net/1814/4381
Abstract
The NIESR's monthly GDP series is an innovative feature; most GDP estimates are published at an annual, or quarterly frequency at best. For purposes of dating the business cycle the availability of this series is an asset, unexploited until this paper. The paper applies a version of the standard business (or 'classical') cycle dating algorithm to the data, after light smoothing to remove outliers. Three classical cycles are detected in the period between the early 1970s and 2002, with turning points which are close to (but usually precede) classical cycle dating which does not benefit from the availability of monthly GDP, and instead relies on a 'coincident' indicator methodology. In addition the turning points of a deviation cycle are identified.