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Regional order making after October 7 : introduction
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Raffaella A. DEL SARTO, Marc LYNCH and Simon MABON (eds), Regional order making after October 7, Washington : Project on Middle East Political Science, 2025, POMEPS studies ; 56, pp. 3-5
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DEL SARTO, Raffaella A., LYNCH, Marc, MABON, Simon, Regional order making after October 7 : introduction, in Raffaella A. DEL SARTO, Marc LYNCH and Simon MABON (eds), Regional order making after October 7, Washington : Project on Middle East Political Science, 2025, POMEPS studies ; 56, pp. 3-5 - https://hdl.handle.net/1814/93684
Abstract
Since the Hamas attacks of October 7, Israel has sought to remake not only Gaza but the broader Middle Eastern order by force. It devastated Hezbollah, killing many of its senior leaders and largely removing the deterrent threat long posed by its missile arsenal; seized territory in Syria and bombed at will across the country following the fall of the Asad regime; launched (largely ineffectual) strikes against the Houthi regime in Yemen; and unleashed a large-scale twelve day bombing campaign against Iran which culminated in the United States bombing the Fordo nuclear complex and then imposing a ceasefire. Israeli policymakers and pundits are openly discussing the creation of a new Middle East defined by the military defeat of Iran and its allies and the removal of any red lines against its actions. This Israeli project of reordering the Levant through unchecked air power is orthogonal to the regional order shaped and presided over by the US since 1991, however – simultaneously bringing it to its logical conclusion and upending its very foundations. Israel’s military supremacy rests on American support. Very real tensions have emerged between the US and its core allies: the US and Israel are at odds over whether Syria should be allowed to consolidate a new regime; the US and its Gulf allies are at odds over American support for Israel’s war on Gaza. Iran emerged from the twelve-day war bloodied but unbeaten; its rapprochement with the Gulf states continues to hold, and it remains uncertain whether and how Tehran might seek to rebuild its regional networks and restore deterrence against Israel – including potentially racing towards a nuclear bomb.
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July 2025