Safe over similar? : a structural interpretation of changing patterns in U.S. democracy promotion
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1356-9775; 1469-3631
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Contemporary politics, 2025, OnlineFirst
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NATALIZIA, Gabriele, TERMINE, Lorenzo, Safe over similar? : a structural interpretation of changing patterns in U.S. democracy promotion, Contemporary politics, 2025, OnlineFirst - https://hdl.handle.net/1814/94150
Abstract
From the outset of his first presidency, Donald Trump rejected the liberal-democratic teleology anchoring U.S. grand strategy in favour of a security-first approach. Rather than a clean break, this sharpened a dilemma for hegemonic powers: whether to seek stability by making secondary states politically similar or strategically safe. This ‘political regime dilemma’ drives U.S. foreign policy oscillations, particularly in democracy promotion. This article offers a structural explanation, arguing that when the international status quo is stable, hegemonic powers pursue long-term transformative goals like reshaping domestic orders. Conversely, when the status quo is challenged by strategic rivals, they prioritise short-term objectives, notably securing alignment or neutrality amid intensifying great power competition. The article tests this hypothesis through a diachronic comparison of U.S. administrations since 1993, showing how structural conditions shaped the prioritisation of democracy promotion within American grand strategy.
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Published online: 08 December 2025