Nowcasting Euro area economic activity in real-time : the role of confidence indicator
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ECARES Working Paper 2009/021
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GIANNONE, Domenico, REICHLIN, Lucrezia, SIMONELLI, Saverio, Nowcasting Euro area economic activity in real-time : the role of confidence indicator, ECARES Working Paper 2009/021 - https://hdl.handle.net/1814/42325
Abstract
This paper assesses the role of surveys for the early estimates of GDP in the euro area in a model-based automated procedures which exploits the timeliness of their release. The analysis is conducted using both an historical evaluation and a real time case study on the current conjuncture.
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Previous versions of this paper have been presented at the workshop on Macroeconomic Forecasting, Analysis and Policy with Data Revision (Montreal, 2006), the 22th Annual Congress of the European Economic Association (Budapest, 2007) and the CSEF seminar series (Napoli, 2008).