Monitoring COVID-19 contagion growth

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dc.contributor.authorAGOSTO, Arianna
dc.contributor.authorCAMPMAS, Alexandra
dc.contributor.authorGIUDICI, Paolo
dc.contributor.authorRENDA, Andrea
dc.date.accessioned2021-11-30T08:52:55Z
dc.date.available2021-11-30T08:52:55Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.descriptionFirst published online: 11 May 2021en
dc.description.abstractWe present a statistical model that can be employed to monitor the time evolution of the COVID-19 contagion curve and the associated reproduction rate. The model is a Poisson autoregression of the daily new observed cases and dynamically adapt its estimates to explain the evolution of contagion in terms of a short-term and long-term dependence of case counts, allowing for a comparative evaluation of health policy measures. We have applied the model to 2020 data from the countries most hit by the virus. Our empirical findings show that the proposed model describes the evolution of contagion dynamics and determines whether contagion growth can be affected by health policies. Based on our findings, we can draw two health policy conclusions that can be useful for all countries in the world. First, policy measures aimed at reducing contagion are very useful when contagion is at its peak to reduce the reproduction rate. Second, the contagion curve should be accurately monitored over time to apply policy measures that are cost-effective.en
dc.description.sponsorshipThis article has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 (grant agreement No 101016233).en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.citationStatistics in medicine, 2021, Vol. 40, No. 18, pp. 4150-4160en
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/sim.9020
dc.identifier.endpage4160en
dc.identifier.issn0277-6715
dc.identifier.issn1097-0258
dc.identifier.issue18en
dc.identifier.startpage4150en
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1814/73176
dc.identifier.volume40en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.orcid.uploadTRUE*
dc.publisherWileyen
dc.relationPan-European Response to the ImpactS of COVID-19 and future Pandemics and Epidemics
dc.relation.ispartofStatistics in medicineen
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen
dc.titleMonitoring COVID-19 contagion growthen
dc.typeArticleen
dspace.entity.typePublication
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person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-9599-8234
person.identifier.other34746
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