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Through hardship, to the stars? : economic expectations and support for the European Union during the COVID-19 and Ukraine crises
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Florence : European University Institute, 2025
EUI; SPS; PhD Thesis
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RUSSO, Luís, Through hardship, to the stars? : economic expectations and support for the European Union during the COVID-19 and Ukraine crises, Florence : European University Institute, 2025, EUI, SPS, PhD Thesis - https://hdl.handle.net/1814/92871
Abstract
This thesis examines the evolving dynamics of attitudes towards the European Union (EU) amid two unprece dented, EU-wide crises: the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I analyse the extent to which these shocks consolidated support for the EU both as a policymaker and as a political community, and whether new concerns emerging from these challenges recalibrated key determinants of individual EU attitudes. Drawing on the original ’Solidarity in Europe’ survey dataset, fielded annually between 2018 and 2023 across 16 EU member states, the study integrates observational, experimental and machine learning techniques to disentangle the impact of new economic and security concerns deriving from both crises on support for the EU. The theoretical framework revisits the postfunctionalist assertion of a ’constraining dissensus’ grounded on the tension between rapid EU jurisdictional changes and exclusionary national identities. Specifically, I present evidence that exogenous and symmetric crises with clear-cut economic ramifications may trigger a temporary attitudinal framework where expectations of economic insurance and prosperity against shared adversity and uncertainty become the most informative motivations underpinning individual EU support, overriding identity-based considerations that have hitherto been pivotal to EU atti tudes. Chapter 1 investigates the immediate aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukrainian crisis, demonstrating that the most salient crisis-related personal concern — inflation — has been progressively linked to bolstered public demand for a more interventionist EU policymaking role. Chapter 2 zooms in on whether the COVID-19 pandemic shifted the determinants of support for EU solidarity, finding that net-benefit expectations from supranational redistribution outweigh cultural predispositions, underscoring the growing importance of material divides underpinning support for supranational redistribution. In Chapter 3, I test the explanatory value of economic, cultural and geopolitical drivers of EU attachment to find that expectations of economic benefit are the strongest correlates of EU attachment; experimental evidence aimed at testing the micro-mechanisms of domestic elite framing complements these findings, demonstrating that frames emphasising economic advantages from the Single Market are the most effective in mustering EU attachment, offsetting the negative effect of identity-centred Eurosceptic messages. Chapter i 4 investigates an erosion in EU attachment one year after the Ukraine invasion, especially amongst the biggest proponents of EU integration, indicating that initial rallying effects from the external, collective challenge posed by Russian expansionism may erode under prolonged inflationary conditions. Overall, this study offers nuanced insights into how common shocks reshape political attitudes, emphasising that urgent crisis pressures may open an avenue for sustained EU legitimacy - insofar as it is perceived to be responsive to both material challenges and public perceptions.
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Defence date: 25 June 2025
Examining Board: Prof. Anton Hemerijck (European University Institute, Supervisor); Prof. Liesbet Hooghe (European University Institute); Prof. Theresa Kuhn (University of Amsterdam); Prof. Ignacio Jurado (Carlos III University of Madrid)
Examining Board: Prof. Anton Hemerijck (European University Institute, Supervisor); Prof. Liesbet Hooghe (European University Institute); Prof. Theresa Kuhn (University of Amsterdam); Prof. Ignacio Jurado (Carlos III University of Madrid)
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Chapter 2 'A supranational solidaristic space? : comparative appraisal of determinants of individual support for European solidarity in the COVID-19 era' of the PhD thesis draws upon an earlier version published as an article 'A supranational solidaristic space? : comparative appraisal of determinants of individual support for European solidarity in the COVID-19 era' (2023) in the journal 'Comparative European Politics'.