Trade shocks and far-right voting : evidence from French presidential elections
| dc.contributor.author | MALGOUYRES, Clément | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2017-03-28T14:23:08Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2017-03-28T14:23:08Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2017 | |
| dc.description.abstract | The rise of radical right parties is a Europe-wide phenomenon. While many studies describe the individual or regional characteristics associated with high propensity to vote for the far-right, we know little about the causal impact of economic shocks on electoral support for the far-right. Over the period 1995-2012, we examine the impact of trade-shocks, measured as exposure to low-wage country import competition, on the local vote share of the National Front, the French main far-right party, during presidential elections. We use small communities (cantons) as units of observations and include province (département) fixed effects, so that the identifying variation comes from within-province change in imports exposure over time. We find evidence of a small but significantly positive impact of import competition exposure on votes for the far-right: a one standard-deviation increase in imports-per-worker causes the change in the far-right share to increase by 7 percent of a standard deviation. Further results suggest that this effect has been increasing over the time period considered. We conduct a simple sensitivity test supporting the notion that (i) omitting local share of immigrants is likely to bias our estimate downward, and that (ii) this bias is likely to negligible. | en |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | en |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1028-3625 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/1814/45886 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | en |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | EUI RSCAS | en |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | 2017/21 | en |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | Global Governance Programme-263 | en |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | Global Economics | en |
| dc.rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | en |
| dc.subject | Far-right | en |
| dc.subject | Voting behavior | en |
| dc.subject | Local labor markets | en |
| dc.subject | Trade | en |
| dc.subject | Import competition | en |
| dc.subject.other | Trade, investment and international cooperation | |
| dc.title | Trade shocks and far-right voting : evidence from French presidential elections | en |
| dc.type | Working Paper | en |
| dspace.entity.type | Publication | |
| eui.subscribe.skip | true | |
| person.identifier.other | 34861 | |
| relation.isAuthorOfPublication | a1050f0f-99a3-4fab-a979-a3dffc5539b6 | |
| relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery | a1050f0f-99a3-4fab-a979-a3dffc5539b6 |
