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Interparty relations in the European Parliament 1952-2024 : between cooperative and adversarial politics
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1725-6720
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Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies Research Paper; [Alcide De Gasperi Research Centre]; 2024
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BARDI, Luciano, CELLINI, Jacopo, Interparty relations in the European Parliament 1952-2024 : between cooperative and adversarial politics, Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies Research Paper, [Alcide De Gasperi Research Centre], 2024 - https://hdl.handle.net/1814/77946
Abstract
The paper examines trends in relations between party groups in the European Parliament since its inception, with a particular focus on the European People’s Party (EPP) and its prospective options for forging coalitions in the coming tenth legislative term. The analysis is embedded in a historical perspective, but makes use of empirical data to assess the likely durability of various intergroup alliances. First, the paper traces the evolution of the two faces of intra-parliamentary relations that have characterised the European Parliament since its early days: cooperative and adversarial politics. Both practices can be observed over time, but cooperation between party groups—in particular the ‘core’ groups of the Socialists, Liberals and Christian Democrats—has been the dominant guiding principle in the Hemicycle. The historical analysis explains why the European Parliament follows a different logic than most national parliaments and illustrates how this cooperation has played out. Next, the continued existence and relevance of the parliamentary core is examined in light of the declining seat shares of the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and EPP groups. In spite of increased fragmentation, the core has persisted and stayed relevant. This analysis is confirmed using two instruments, the institutional relevance index as well as a newly developed political relevance index. Even as the core has shrunk, its three components have maintained their dominant role in the European Parliament. The prospects for the core groups in the tenth term are then considered. Given its status as the single largest group by far, the EPP would be well-placed to look for new partners and alliances on its own terms. In practice, however, the analysis suggests that embarking on such a course would be fraught with difficulty. Beyond assessing the simple numerical criteria needed to reach an absolute majority, political criteria are introduced that allow an evaluation of the likelihoods of stable and fruitful cooperation with groups outside the historical core. This analysis relies on a measurement of intra-group cohesion as well as intergroup agreement, both compiled by Hix and Noury. It highlights the considerable difficulties that would need to be overcome to reach more than ad hoc cooperation on selected issues with other groups. Even without the S&D group, the continued reliance on Renew and its low levels of agreement with groups to the right of the EPP makes durable coalitions with groups such as the European Conservatives and Reformists or Identity and Democracy unlikely. To conclude, the next term of the European Parliament will likely be marked by the continuity of intergroup relations, and the EPP will find it difficult to pivot away from the core. The pay-offs of more conflictual relations between the core groups are limited, and cooperation can therefore be expected to prevail. This does not exclude the possibility that, on specific issues or in the process of filling institutional positions, alternative alliances could emerge that might become more relevant over time.