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Global Risks to EU 2025 (RISK-EU) dataset
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RISK-EU Codebook 2025.pdf (97.09 KB)
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EUI; RSC; Research Data; European Governance and Politics Programme; 2025
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ANGHEL, Veronica, Global Risks to EU 2025 (RISK-EU) dataset, EUI, RSC, Research Data, European Governance and Politics Programme, 2025 - https://hdl.handle.net/1814/78025
Abstract
RISK-EU is a large-scale survey designed to quantify expert perceptions of conflict-related threats to European Union interests. Launched in 2025 by the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies (RSCAS) at the European University Institute (EUI), in collaboration with the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), the Trans European Policy Studies Association (TEPSA), and the European Initiative for Security Studies (EISS), RISK-EU constitutes the first continent-wide dataset on global risk perceptions among European experts. Survey respondents assign probabilistic scores to the likelihood and expected impact of 30 predefined risks affecting EU coherence, unity, security, and prosperity. By operationalizing risk as a measurable construct and applying systematic scoring methods, RISK-EU aims to generate strategic foresight for European foreign policy and trace foreign policy alignment among EU experts.
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Data sources: The data is the result of an original individual level expert survey. The methodological design of RISK-EU draws inspiration from the Preventive Priorities Survey, an annual instrument implemented by the Council on Foreign Relations in the United States since 2008. Data collection for RISK-EU was conducted drawing upon the networks associated with the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), the Trans European Policy Studies Association (TEPSA), and the European Initiative for Security Studies (EISS). The authors are also thankful to the European Consortium for Political Research (ECPR) Standing Group on the European Union for distributing the survey. On November 8, 2024, the survey received Ethics Clearance #20241014 from the EUI Ethics Committee. Beginning November 14, the EUISS, TEPSA, and EISS launched the survey within their expert communities. Additionally, the Standing Group on the European Union of the ECPR invited input from its members. In total, the survey reached 5,395 potential respondents (TEPSA: 2,000; EUISS: 700; EISS: 1300; ECPR: 1,395). The survey remained open for 16 days, during which we surpassed our target of 400 unique, complete responses. Respondents who were neither EU citizens nor EU residents were subsequently screened out. The final analytical sample included 395 respondents.