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Before AGI arrives : why 2025-2030 determines the future of democratic AI governance
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2600-271X
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EUI; STG; Policy Brief; 2025/11
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SUCHA, Vladimir, Before AGI arrives : why 2025-2030 determines the future of democratic AI governance, EUI, STG, Policy Brief, 2025/11 - https://hdl.handle.net/1814/92996
Abstract
This paper argues that democratic societies face a critical three- to five-year window (2025-2030) to establish effective governance of artificial intelligence before the potential emergence of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The analysis demonstrates that AI capabilities are advancing exponentially while democratic institutions respond at traditional policy speeds, creating a dangerous mismatch. Power is rapidly concentrating in private technology corporations that now control 85-90% of AI computational resources and talent, while public sector AI investment lags dramatically behind private funding. The paper outlines essential policy actions including governance innovation, strategic public investment of €5 billion annually, international coordination mechanisms, and proactive risk mitigation. Failure to act within this narrow window risks permanent democratic disempowerment, entrenched power asymmetries, and irreversible safety risks as AI systems potentially surpass human capabilities in critical governance domains.
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Published online: July 2025