Open Access
Bridging troubled water : electoral availability in European party systems in the aftermath of the Great Recession (2009-2014) : an application of Bayesian ideal point estimation
Loading...
Files
DeAngelis_2017.pdf (6.12 MB)
Embargoed until 2021
License
Cadmus Permanent Link
Full-text via DOI
ISBN
ISSN
Issue Date
Type of Publication
Keyword(s)
Other Topic(s)
EUI Research Cluster(s)
Initial version
Published version
Succeeding version
Preceding version
Published version part
Earlier different version
Initial format
Author(s)
Citation
Florence : European University Institute, 2017
EUI; SPS; PhD Thesis
Cite
DE ANGELIS, Andrea, Bridging troubled water : electoral availability in European party systems in the aftermath of the Great Recession (2009-2014) : an application of Bayesian ideal point estimation, Florence : European University Institute, 2017, EUI, SPS, PhD Thesis - https://hdl.handle.net/1814/46986
Abstract
How is electoral competition structured in Europe? This fundamental problem lies at the core of democracy, as popular sovereignty depends on the existence of a real policy choice, and requires the most preferred alternative being selected and implemented (Dahl 1956). However, there is no consensus yet regarding the actual occurrence of this mechanism of responsive electoral competition (Schumpeter 1942). I develop a new empirical design to test whether a structure of electoral competition in Europe actually exists, based on the idea that greater party system polarization should be associated with a smaller propensity for voters to switch between electoral blocks. To do so, I identify two potential loci of electoral competition in Europe: the left-right dimension (Downs 1957; Bartolini and Mair 1990), and the more recently introduced integration-demarcation cleavage (Kriesi 1998; Kriesi et al. 2006). Data from the European Election Survey (2009, 2014) allow the implementation of the novel design in order to study electoral competition in 27 EU member states. For this thesis to empirically address the question of electoral competition in Europe a preliminary, methodological development has to be made. Indices of political polarization are generally produced using survey respondents’ average perceptions of party positions. I show that this approach leads to systematic measurement error: the problem, known as Differential Item Functioning (DIF), depends on the fact that voter perceptions are subjective and cannot be directly compared, neither within nor between countries. To separate the actual polarization from perceptual bias, I develop a two-stage Bayesian Aldrich-McKelvey (2S-BAM) scaling procedure and apply Dalton’s index on DIF-corrected measures of party positions (ideal points) on both dimensions. Results show that when standard DIF-inflated polarization indices are used, left-right ideology seems to be still structuring European electoral competition. However, once the indices are optimized, using party ideal points, the integration-demarcation cleavage gains the upper hand over the left-right dimension in structuring electoral competition in contemporary Europe. Thus, this thesis makes both a methodological and theoretical, as well as an empirical contribution to the literature in this field.
Table of Contents
Additional Information
Defence date: 21 June 2017
Examining Board: Professor Alexander H. Trechsel, University of Lucerne (Supervisor); Professor Hanspeter Kriesi, European University Institute; Professor Russell J. Dalton, University of California, Irvine; Professor David Farrell, University College Dublin
Examining Board: Professor Alexander H. Trechsel, University of Lucerne (Supervisor); Professor Hanspeter Kriesi, European University Institute; Professor Russell J. Dalton, University of California, Irvine; Professor David Farrell, University College Dublin