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Global risks to the EU 2026

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EUI; RSC; Research Project Report; European Governance and Politics Programme; 2026
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ANGHEL, Veronica, Global risks to the EU 2026, EUI, RSC, Research Project Report, European Governance and Politics Programme, 2026 - https://hdl.handle.net/1814/94155
Abstract
Global Risks to the EU’ (RISK-EU) is a large-scale survey designed to quanti fy expert perceptions of conflict-related threats to European Union security. First launched in 2025 by the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies (RSCAS) at the European University Institute (EUI), in collaboration with the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), the Trans European Policy Studies Association (TEPSA), and the European Initiative for Security Studies (EISS), ‘Global Risks to the EU’ constitutes the first continent-wide dataset on global risk perceptions among European experts. A target high-knowledge sample of 500 re spondents rank the likelihood and expected impact of 30 predefined risks affecting EU security. By operationalising risk as a mea surable construct and applying systematic scoring methods, this initiative aims to gen erate strategic foresight for European for eign policy. The survey is a yearly academic endeavour also meant to capture trends in threat perceptions among experts. The methodological design of ‘Global Risks to the EU’ draws inspiration from the ‘Preventive Priorities Survey,’ an annual instrument implemented by the Council on Foreign Relations in the United States since 2008. Data collection was conducted drawing upon the networks associated with the EUI, EUISS, TEPSA, and the EISS. The author is also grateful to the Council for European Studies (CES), the largest transatlantic community for the study of Europe, for distributing the survey, and to the Europe’s Futures Initiative (EFI) for supporting this research.
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Made online in Cadmus on 10/12/2025.
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