The 'Great Lockdown' : inactive workers and mortality by Covid-19

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dc.contributor.authorBORRI, Nicola
dc.contributor.authorDRAGO, Francesco
dc.contributor.authorSANTANTONIO, Chiara
dc.contributor.authorSOBBRIO, Francesco
dc.date.accessioned2021-01-08T08:21:18Z
dc.date.available2021-01-08T08:21:18Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.description.abstractIn response to the Covid-19 outbreak, among other previous “non-pharmaceutical interven-tions”, on March 22, 2020 the Italian Government imposed an economic lockdown and ordered the closing of all non-essential economic activities. This paper estimates the causal effect of this measure on mortality by Covid-19 and on mobility patterns. The identification of the causal effect exploits the variation in the number of active workers across municipalities induced by the economic lockdown. The difference-in-difference empirical design compares outcomes in municipalities above and below the median variation in the share of active population before and after the lockdown within a province, also controlling for municipality-specific dynamics, daily-shocks at the provincial level and municipal unobserved characteristics. Our results show that the intensity of the economic lockdown is associated to a statistically significant reduction in mortality by Covid-19 and, in particular, for age groups between 40-64 and older. Back of the envelope calculations indicate that 4,793 deaths were avoided, in the 26 days between April 5 to April 30, in the 3,518 municipalities which experienced a more intense lockdown. Assuming linearity, a 1 percentage point reduction in the share of active population caused a 1.32 percentage points reduction in mortality by Covid-19. We also find that the economic lockdown, as expected, led to a reduction in human mobility. Several robustness checks corroborate our empirical findings.en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.issn2364-1428
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1814/69416
dc.language.isoenen
dc.orcid.uploadtrue*
dc.publisherCESifoen
dc.relation.ispartofseriesCESifo Working Paperen
dc.relation.ispartofseries2020/8584en
dc.relation.isreplacedbyhttps://hdl.handle.net/1814/69415
dc.relation.urihttps://www.cesifo.org/en/publikationen/2020/working-paper/great-lockdown-inactive-workers-and-mortality-covid-19en
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen
dc.subjectCOVID-19en
dc.subjectEconomic lockdownen
dc.subjectExcess deathsen
dc.subjectMobilityen
dc.subjectH510en
dc.subjectI100en
dc.subjectI180en
dc.subjectI300en
dc.titleThe 'Great Lockdown' : inactive workers and mortality by Covid-19en
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dspace.entity.typePublication
person.identifier.other56722
person.identifier.other39119
person.identifier.other35610
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relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery255bda6a-bbb7-4b3b-a765-7c42b5f5fdf2
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