Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs

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dc.contributor.authorMUSSO, Alberto
dc.contributor.authorPHILLIPS, S.
dc.date.accessioned2011-04-19T12:48:57Z
dc.date.available2011-04-19T12:48:57Z
dc.date.issued2002
dc.description.abstractProgram numbers from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts. Statistical bias is found only for projections of inflation and official reserves. Statistical efficiency can be rejected for all variables except growth, suggesting that some program projections were less accurate than they might have been. Nevertheless, most projections are found to have some predictive value. Since several findings are shown to be sample dependent, the full-sample results should be interpreted cautiously.
dc.identifier.citationImf Staff Papers, 2002, 49, 1, 22-48
dc.identifier.endpage48
dc.identifier.issn1020-7635
dc.identifier.issue1
dc.identifier.startpage22
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1814/16571
dc.identifier.volume49
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherInternational Monetary Fund
dc.titleComparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs
dc.typeArticle
dspace.entity.typePublication
eui.subscribe.skiptrue
person.identifier.other27947
relation.isAuthorOfPublication3637b578-f808-4d0b-862b-7e9d2554da49
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery3637b578-f808-4d0b-862b-7e9d2554da49
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