Three essays on political behavior and attitudes in authoritarian regimes
| dc.contributor.author | FOMICHEV, Ivan | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2025-06-10T15:10:43Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2025-06-10T15:10:43Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2025 | |
| dc.description | Defence date: 10 June 2025 | |
| dc.description | Examining Board: Prof. Miriam Golden (Stanford University, former European University Institute, Supervisor); Prof. Sascha Riaz (European University Institute) Prof. Katerina Tertytchnaya (University of Oxford) Prof. Milan Svolik (Yale University) | |
| dc.description.abstract | Explaining the dynamics of contemporary authoritarian regimes requires understanding how ordinary citizens in such regimes form political attitudes and act on them. What makes people support authoritarian leaders? How do people living under autocratic rule react to signals of its declining public support or policy failures? How do they respond to government propaganda? And why do those who do not support the regime often fail to coordinate against it? This collection of studies investigates how people in authoritarian regimes process information, respond to it, and alter their political attitudes and behavior accordingly. The three papers are united by their shared focus on the mechanisms through which information – whether about electoral vulnerabilities, public dissent, or military setbacks – affects political attitudes and behaviors in authoritarian settings. The dissertation consists of three independent articles. The first study investigates strategic voting coordination in electoral autocracies, focusing on Alexei Navalny’s Smart Voting campaign in Russia’s 2021 elections. Using survey experimental data, it finds that while opposition voters respond to strategic endorsements, ideological preferences often override coordination incentives, limiting the campaign’s effectiveness. The second study examines the electoral impact of localized protests, analyzing anti-corruption and pension reform demonstrations in Russia. It finds that protests reduce regime support primarily by demobilizing pro-government voters rather than shifting them toward the opposition, highlighting the constraints on opposition mobilization even amid visible dissent. The third study explores how military losses influence political attitudes in autocracies, using data on Russian casualties in Ukraine. It shows that exposure to war fatalities intensifies patriotic sentiment while simultaneously weakening regime support and reducing the effectiveness of state propaganda, illustrating the tension between nationalism and political legitimacy. Collectively, these studies contribute to a deeper theoretical understanding of political behavior and the role of information under authoritarianism. They draw upon conceptual frameworks related to collective action problems, information cascades, and signaling theory to explain how, even in tightly controlled informational environments, citizens can interpret events in ways that challenge the regime’s narratives and strategies. | |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | |
| dc.identifier.citation | Florence : European University Institute, 2025 | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.2870/1935512 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/1814/92815 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.publisher | European University Institute | |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | EUI | |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | SPS | |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | PhD Thesis | |
| dc.rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess | |
| dc.title | Three essays on political behavior and attitudes in authoritarian regimes | |
| dc.type | Thesis | |
| dspace.entity.type | Publication | |
| person.identifier.other | 45097 | |
| relation.isAuthorOfPublication | e6f400b1-27fc-4ef9-b13c-5a39b39c86b3 | |
| relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery | e6f400b1-27fc-4ef9-b13c-5a39b39c86b3 |
