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Forecasting Aggregated Time Series Variables: A Survey
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1725-6704
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EUI ECO; 2009/17
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LUETKEPOHL, Helmut, Forecasting Aggregated Time Series Variables: A Survey, EUI ECO, 2009/17 - https://hdl.handle.net/1814/11256
Abstract
Aggregated times series variables can be forecasted in different ways. For example, they may be forecasted on the basis of the aggregate series or forecasts of disaggregated variables may be obtained first and then these forecasts may be aggregated. A number of forecasts are presented and compared. Classical theoretical results on the relative efficiencies of different forecasts are reviewed and some complications are discussed which invalidate the theoretical results. Contemporaneous as well as temporal aggregation are considered.