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Title:Risk and ambiguity in models of business cycles Author(s):BACKUS, David; FERRIERE, Axelle EUI affiliated

; ZIN, StanleyDate:2015Citation: Journal of monetary economics, 2015, Vol. 69, pp. 42-63 Type:ArticleAbstract:We inject aggregate uncertainty - risk and ambiguity - into an otherwise standard business cycle model and describe its consequences. We find that increases in uncertainty generally reduce consumption, but they do not ...

Title:Directional predictability and time-varying spillovers between stock markets and economic cycles Author(s):BEKIROS, Stelios D. EUI affiliated

; HUSSAIN, Syed J.; ARREOLA HERNANDEZ, Jose; REHMAN, Mobeen U.Date:2018Citation: Economic modelling, 2018, Vol. 69, pp. 301-312 Type:ArticleAbstract:We examine the nonlinear dependence structure and causal nexus between business cycles, stock market returns and asset return volatility for the US economy. We implement two novel methodologies, namely quantile-on-quantile ...

Title:Waiting for the paycheck : individual and aggregate effects of wage payment Author(s):BERNIELL, InésDate:2016Type:Working PaperSeries/Number:EUI MWP; 2016/05Abstract:This paper shows that the frequency at which workers are paid affects the within-month patterns of both household expenditure and aggregate economic activity. To identify causal effects, I exploit two novel sources of ...

Title:Wage dispersion over the business cycle Author(s):MORIN, AnnaïgDate:2013Type:Working PaperSeries/Number:EUI MWP; 2013/28Abstract:In this paper, I establish a positive correlation between wage dispersion and GDP at business cycle frequencies. Moreover, I provide a rationale for the procyclical properties of wage dispersion by studying a dynamic search ...

Title:Nested Models and Model Uncertainty Author(s):KRIWOLUZKY, Alexander; STOLTENBERG, Christian A.Date:2009Type:Working PaperSeries/Number:EUI MWP; 2009/31Abstract:Uncertainty about the appropriate choice among nested models is a central concern for optimal policy when policy prescriptions from those models differ. The standard procedure is to specify a prior over the parameter space ...

Title:Nested Models and Model Uncertainty Author(s):KRIWOLUZKY, Alexander; STOLTENBERG, Christian A.Date:2009Type:Working PaperSeries/Number:EUI ECO; 2009/37Abstract:Uncertainty about the appropriate choice among nested models is a central concern for optimal policy when policy prescriptions from those models differ. The standard procedure is to specify a prior over the parameter space ...

Title:Self-fulfilling Beliefs and Bounded Bubbles in the U.S. Housing Market Author(s):KASHIWAGI, MasanoriDate:2011-01-01Type:Working PaperSeries/Number:EUI MWP; 2011/08Abstract:This paper provides an equilibrium framework to organize the following empirical observations on the U.S. housing market from 1975 to 2007: (i) housing tenure and vacancies were approximately constant, (ii) rents were ...

Title:The length of patents and the timing of innovation Author(s):ROUSAKIS, MichaelDate:2014Type:Working PaperSeries/Number:EUI MWP; 2014/24Abstract:This article evaluates the effects of patent rights on the timing of innovation. As in Shleifer (1986), firms in different sectors receive cost-saving ideas exogenously and sequentially, from which they can make temporary ...

Title:An Empirical Study of Credit Shock Transmission in a Small Open Economy Author(s):BEDOCK, Nathan; STEVANOVIC, DaliborDate:2012Type:Working PaperSeries/Number:EUI MWP; 2012/02Abstract:In this paper we identify and measure the effects of credit shocks in a small open economy. To incorporate information from a large number of economic and financial indicators we use the structural factor-augmented VARMA ...

Title:Twin Deficits, Openness and the Business Cycle Author(s):CORSETTI, Giancarlo; MÜLLER, Gernot J.Date:2007Type:Working PaperSeries/Number:EUI ECO; 2007/20Abstract:In this paper, we study the co-movement of the government budget balance and the trade balance at business cycle frequencies. In a sample of 10 OECD countries we find that the correlation of the two time series is negative, ...

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