The Impact of China on Manufacturing Exports of Italy and Germany

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of China on the export performance of Italy and Germany to their main trading partners in the OECD markets. Given a strong specialization in the manufacturing sector, these two countries are exposed to China’s competition. Italy, with a productive structure based on so-called “traditional” sectors, is likely to be more vulnerable to China’s competitive pressure. Using data for the period 1995-2009, this paper estimates the impact of China on Italy and Germany’s market shares at a very disaggregated sector level. Results show that China has affected Italy’s and Germany’s market shares in different ways, especially during the post-WTO accession period, being on average more harmful for the former.