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dc.contributor.authorLUETKEPOHL, Helmut
dc.contributor.authorNETŠUNAJEV, Aleksei
dc.date.accessioned2013-07-05T14:50:15Z
dc.date.available2013-07-05T14:50:15Z
dc.date.issued2014
dc.identifier.citationJournal of applied econometrics, 2014, Vol. 29, No. 3, pp. 479-496en
dc.identifier.issn1099-1255
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1814/27539
dc.descriptionArticle first published online: 28 MAY 2013en
dc.description.abstractSign restrictions have become increasingly popular for identifying shocks in structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models. So far there are no techniques for validating the shocks identified via such restrictions. Although in an ideal setting the sign restrictions specify shocks of interest, sign restrictions may be invalidated by measurement errors, data adjustments or omitted variables. We model changes in the volatility of the shocks via a Markov switching (MS) mechanism and use this device to give the data a chance to object to sign restrictions. The approach is illustrated by considering a small model for the market of crude oil. Earlier findings that oil supply shocks explain only a very small fraction of movements in the price of oil are confirmed and it is found that the importance of aggregate demand shocks for oil price movements has declined since the mid 1980s.en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Applied Econometricsen
dc.titleDisentangling demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market : how to check sign restrictions in structural VARsen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/jae.2330
dc.identifier.volume29en
dc.identifier.startpage479
dc.identifier.endpage496
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dc.identifier.issue3


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