Ageing of skills and complementary immigration in the EU, 2010-2025

Abstract

This paper measures both population ageing and shrinking within the working age populations of all 27 European Union countries between 2010 and 2025, in the absence of any further migration. In this ‘no migration scenario’ it provides the levels of net migration that should be necessary to maintain the size of the young working age population (aged 15-44 years of age). This paper does not give analytic focus to wider non-demographic processes that can either offset or amplify the ageing of skills. For example, neither the introduction of life-long learning programmes nor the postponements to the legal age of retirement are factored into the model. Results highlight that without migrants shows the employed population aged below 45 in all EU member states will have significant levels of shortfall in maintaining the size of the 2010 labour force.