Effect of the accuracy of price forecasting on profit in a price based unit commitment

Abstract

This paper discusses and quantifies the so-called loss of profit (i.e., the sub-optimality of profit) that can be expected in a Price Based Unit Commitment (PBUC), when incorrect price forecasts are used. For this purpose, a PBUC model has been developed and utilized, using Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). Simulations are used to determine the relationship between the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of a certain price forecast and the loss of profit, for four different types of power plants. A Combined Cycle (CC) power plant and a pumped storage unit show highest sensitivity to incorrect forecasts. A price forecast with a MAPE of 15%, on average, yields 13.8% and 12.1% profit loss, respectively. A classic thermal power plant (coal fired) and cascade hydro unit are less affected by incorrect forecasts, with only 2.4% and 2.0% profit loss, respectively, at the same price forecast MAPE. This paper further demonstrates that if price forecasts show an average bias (upward or downward), using the MAPE as measure of the price forecast might not be sufficient to quantify profit loss properly. Profit loss in this case has been determined as a function of both shift and MAPE of the price forecast.