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dc.contributor.authorVICONDOA, Alejandro
dc.date.accessioned2016-05-30T08:37:03Z
dc.date.available2016-05-30T08:37:03Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.identifier.issn1725-6704
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1814/41444
dc.description.abstractThis paper identifies anticipated (news) and unanticipated (surprise) shocks to the U.S. Fed Funds rate using CBOT Fed Funds Future Market and assesses their propagation to emerging economies. Anticipated movements account for 80% of quarterly Fed Funds fluctuations and explain a significant fraction of the narrative monetary policy shocks. An expected 1% increase in the reference interest rate induces a fall of 2% in GDP of emerging economies two quarters before the shock materializes. Unanticipated contractionary shocks also cause a recession. Both shocks have a larger impact in emerging relative to developed economies and the financial channel is the most relevant for their transmission. Anticipation is also relevant to understand the transmission of U.S. real interest rate shocks.en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.language.isoenen
dc.relation.ispartofseriesEUI ECOen
dc.relation.ispartofseries2016/10en
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen
dc.subjectInternational business cycleen
dc.subjectInterest rateen
dc.subjectNews shocksen
dc.subjectSmall open economyen
dc.subjectE32en
dc.subjectE52en
dc.subjectF41en
dc.subjectF44en
dc.titleMonetary news, U.S. interest rate and business cycles in emerging economiesen
dc.typeWorking Paperen


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