On the debris of Aleppo : a gloomy and uncertain reconstruction for Syria : an analysis

Abstract

The current military map that has emerged following the fall of Aleppo, and the gradual purging of dozens of rebel towns in Rif Damascus in 2016, is the culmination of dynamics that were initiated as early as in 2013. They were accelerated following Russia’s direct military involvement in September 2015: the rise of Iranian and Russian presence on the ground; the disengagement of Gulf and Western countries; the gradual elimination of nonjihadist armed rebel forces; and the emergence of new spheres of influence (Turkish and Kurdish). Syria has in fact entered a new era, marked by the ultimate defeat of Syrian-Revolution forces that are now confined to increasingly narrow territorial pockets, and by the assertion of a new troika (Russia, Turkey and Iran) on both the military and diplomatic level. The conflict itself, however, seems to remain far from over.