Η χάραξη της τουρκικής γεωπολιτικής ως προϊόν ηγετικής φιλοδοξίας και πρόκληση έναντι παραδοσιακών μεθόδων διαχείρισης κινδύνου και μέτρησης ισχύος

Abstract

On the verge of new Middle Eastern geopolitical uncertainties, the respective regional leaderships face high stakes and develop a visionary planning as well as a revisionary reading and remaking of the history. In this line, the Turkish political footprint, as it is expressed over the last decades under the so called neo-ottoman version of political Islam, is overloaded with dramatic tones of reviving the ottoman memories along with relevant imperial geopolitics, distant to the western perception of respecting secularism. The main research question of this study emphasizes on who is the leader and which is the nation that has the plans, the programs and the resources to fulfil ambitious missions and powerfully achieve regional control objectives. At this point, both strategists and technocrats may introduce risk analysis and assessments before decisions are taken; similarly, country-states should perform self-awareness and readiness for mitigation actions in order to reduce their exposure to risks against their peace and prosperity. Given the deep and rapid late socio-political changes in Turkey, the attempt to map the ongoing risks is anyway difficult. In this context this paper presents a brief and systematic formula of regional power measurement which can be easily communicated, while it demonstrates the variability of the factors involved.