A risk-based assessment of road networks : country case-study and a wide range of applications covering from logistics operations and security controls to regional geo-economic development

Abstract

In this paper a series of strategic logistics concepts, like transportation axes “attractivity”, substitution costs, geo-economic and emergency traffic paths, nodes and gates, are introduced and evaluated in a country case study assessing regional road networks. Based on the above mentioned, risk analyses are performed with regard to the logistics emergencies. Turkey’s main road network is being accordingly examined along with the policy implications of the results provided by current political changes in this country. This study exhibits that the R.T. Erdogan’s, AKP party-ruled, governments, caused not only high-level geopolitics and geo-economics repercussions but also have severe economic and logistics effects, activating incentives and infrastructure investments, especially in the so called Anatolian areas. The analysis of Turkey’s internal geo-economic trends offers notable insight into the mechanism controlling in general the regional socio-economic attractiveness and efficiency. In this context the socioeconomic indicator: "Roads Network Development" on regional basis and for each year of the period 1995-2012, has then been chosen and analyzed statistically as dependent variable in relation to the election results and the consequent political changes between the so called Kemalist and political Islam regimes; the results surprisingly confirm the relevant hypotheses tested.