Die Zukunft der Demokratie ist nicht das, was sie einmal war

Abstract

Democracy or, better, 'Real-Existing Democracy' (RED) has a future, but it is not what it used to be or seemed to be. In retrospect, we now know that the 40 or so years after World War II were an exceptional period of stability for REDs-due to the coincidence of the two Cs: (1) the threat posed by a potential Communist revolution, and (2) the resources provided by a continuously expanding Capitalism. Both, especially when combined, provided strong incentives for ruling elites to accept compromises in their institutions and policies. They provided a threat from below and a surplus from above that made it possible to strike a temporary, but close, symbiosis between democracy and capitalism. This exceptional conjuncture no longer exists. The threat of an alternative type of regime has disappeared and the surplus provided by high and persistent economic growth has disappeared. The incentives for reform are not there; neither are the resources to pay for them. Far from being securely entrenched at "the End of History," RED is entering a new period of history that will be more tumultuous in nature and uncertain in income.