Does local public corruption generate partisan effects on polls?
Title: Does local public corruption generate partisan effects on polls?
Citation: Crime law and social change, 2018, Vol. 69, No. 1, pp. 3-23
ISSN: 0925-4994; 1573-0751
During the recent years of economic boom in Spain, political corruption at the local level boomed as well. In fact, it increased from 7 publicly denounced cases from 1999 to 2003 to at least 180 in the legislative period (2007-2011). In this paper, we explore this phenomenon in two related ways: how it has affected voting results and political participation, and whether the wrongdoing of local politicians has undermined the voters' trust in them. We constructed a socioeconomic municipality database that matched polling results and corruption cases and then estimated a voting-share equation by difference-in-difference and matching techniques. Our results confirm that the voters' attitude towards corruption is significantly different with respect to parties on the right or the left. In fact, after a prosecution in a local corruption case, abstention increases by an average 1.8 percentage points, left-parties' voting share is reduced by approximately 2 percentage points, while right-parties' share increases approximately 2 points.
Subject: Political corruption; Voting-behavior; Scandals; Opinion; Program; Turnout
First online: 28 November 2016
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