Impact of public attitudes to migration on the political environment in the Euro-Mediterranean region : First chapter: Europe

Abstract

In this chapter we consider how and why the dramatic changes in the salience of immigration in recent years have changed European politics. We first combine findings from the literature to produce an original theoretical framework of how salience affects electoral outcomes and ultimately public policy via emotional activation and exposure to information. We then overview variation in the salience of immigration in Europe from 2005 to 2018, showing clear trends according to geography, politics and economics. Next, we produce a further comprehensive theoretical framework to explain these trends in salience, based on the literature, that specifies the respective and interactive roles of public policy, ‘real-world’ migration events and trends, media and politicians, before adducing evidence that supports this framework. We consider how salience—both in terms of the perceived most important issues affecting one’s country and the EU—has affected past European Parliamentary elections, in terms of the percentage of seats won by radical right parties, and what this tells us about future electoral results. Finally, having developed two theoretical frameworks, we offer next steps for policy-makers and researchers of migration, public opinion and European politics.