The demographic echo of war and social mobility in Russia

Abstract

Recurring variations in cohort size (also known as ‘baby booms’ and ‘baby busts’) are known to be a factor affecting the fortunes of people born to different cohorts. However, existing evidence in this regard comes overwhelmingly from Western countries, while little is known about the impact of similar processes in Russia despite the fact it is the country in which the Second World War has left, perhaps, the most sizeable and far-reaching demographic trace. Apart from immense casualties and devastating effects on the health of the surviving population, it had a major impact on the fertility of several generations that sent ripples through Russia’s population age structure for years to come – the phenomenon that Russian demographers metaphorically refer to as the ‘demographic echo of war’. In this study, I explore the effects of this peculiar demographic context on individual social mobility both during the Soviet and the post-Soviet period, using rich data from the Max Planck Education and Employment Survey and Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey. In general, I find that the demographic echo of war affected the individual mobility patterns of Russians in several intricate ways, although the magnitude of its impact does not warrant the conclusion that it had a decisive effect on people’s fortunes. The study also makes several theoretical contributions to existing scholarship on the relationship between changes in population age structure and the process of social stratification.